Politics makes for strange bedfellows as the saying goes, and nowhere is this more apparent than in the local politics of Ronda, a city that probably should never rank on the Spanish stage as being important, yet which almost seems to have become a barometer of national opinion.

Anyone familiar with the town hall in Ronda can not have missed the various scandals and mud slingings that have befallen our city, and as we approach the run up to the local election race due to culminate at the end of May, it seems slightly appropriate to discuss how we can expect to see events unfolding.

Party politics is alive and well in Ronda, the incumbent mayor Antonio Marin Lara seems quite committed to Partido Socialista Obrero de Espana (PSOE) after joining the party along with 8 former Partido Andalucista (PA) councillors when that party faced near oblivion in the first half of 2010. Marin Lara has yet to be confirmed as candidate for the PSOE in the municipal elections, despite support from Ronda party president Francisco Cañestro.

Whilst within the ranks of the Partido Popular (PP), Maria Paz Fernando Lobato was easily chosen by her miltants to lead the party, and a reformed PA chose Isabel Barriga to take charge of rebuilding the party, under the strong leadership of Pilar Gonzalez of Sevilla who has taken the bull by the horns and is attempting to wrest control of several cities from PSOE.

At a national level PSOE are in terrible straits, with almost all polls suggesting a PP win on the national stage, give or take some diehard areas that never change sides. In Andalucia, PSOE have been in power for so long it almost seems like their birthright, and this is taken for granted by many militants and supporters who genuinely believe 2011 will see a continuation of PSOE in power in Andalucia.

However, as in Ronda where PP are widely expected to oust PSOE and whoever they choose as their candidate, at the community level many within PP are quietly hopeful of finally taking enough seats to kick PSOE into second place as well. Regardless of the result in Sevilla, it almost seems that Ronda is in for a shake-up, probably with a PP led coalition of either PSOE or PA.

So, if polls are suggesting a PP led government in Ronda, why on earth haven’t PSOE come out fighting and taking a unified approach to winning? Sadly for PSOE supporters the party is facing a quiet behind the scenes civil war that shows no signs of let up yet. Within the town hall and amongst opposition parties, loyalist PSOE militants are described as being in open rebellion.

Local party president Francisco Cañestro publicly states he supports the mayor, yet gives all the signs of being quite unhappy at having to take a backseat to Marin Lara, and speculation outside the party amongst ordinary citizens is that Cañestro may be working hard to scupper Marin Lara’s chances. Ronda Today is not sure of this allegation, quite frankly Cañestro doesn’t need to do anything, with such a large group of party faithful in rebellion he only needs to sit back and let events unfold.

Marin Lara on the other hand is literally fighting for his political life, and seems distinctly unhappy at the open rebellion. Party insiders and town hall bureaucrats have confided to Ronda Today that Marin Lara, or Toti as he is known, allegedly takes humbrage at perceived slights, and may be under considerable pressure. Marin Lara rarely attends PSOE social events, and is more often seen in the company of a very small group of other councillors.

Rumours during the middle of the year, which Ronda Today reported on, suggesting Marin Lara was seeking nomination for a seat in the community parliament seem to have all but dried up, in fact, other rumours emanating from Malaga now suggest the complete opposite, that Antonio Marin Lara may not have as much support within PSOE as he did, and that at a national level he may even face considerable opposition to being selected as candidate for the party in Ronda.

The debate and vote on who will represent PSOE in Ronda has been delayed until sometime in January, which has by necessity forced the opposition to delay their election campaigns rather than waste their campaign funding knowing that PSOE won’t be spending any of their funds until their candidate has been confirmed.

As we exit 2010 and go into 2011, this is the reason political maneuvering seems to be so weak in Ronda. It doesn’t however stop us from speculating, and if all indicators are to be believed, Antonio Marin Lara as next mayor is starting to look less secure. Even if he wins the support of local militants and becomes candidate, Maria Paz Fernando is still looking quite comfortable with a several point lead, which might not require much effort to retain.

In private conversations between Ronda Today’s editor Michelle Cameron, and militants of all parties, councillors, opposition candidates, and people in the streets of Ronda, it feels like the tide is turning, and that politics in Ronda is about to be up ended.

Is Maria Paz up to the task of leading Ronda for the next few years? Well, there is a perception that she is weak on policy, and not an agressive politician. Many wonder if she has what it takes to successfully debate an experienced politician such as Marin Lara, or to take on Cañestro if by some chance he is voted candidate.

Certainly at the moment Maria Paz has taken a subdued approach to the election, preferring to let the national swing away from PSOE carry her, but very soon she is going to be forced to step up and put herself in the limelight and convince doubters that she has what it takes to lead her team.

Readers shouldn’t doubt Maria Paz’s energy, or her strategy, she is an astute observer of the human condition, and more importantly, prefers to keep her own counsel when she comes under attack. She also enjoys considerable support in Malaga and from the national PP so would be certain of receiving good advice. It would be a mistake to conclude that Maria Paz incapable, if anything, many might be surprised at how capably she has surrounded herself with loyal lieutenants.

The PA on the other hand sees itself as the rightful opposition in Ronda, with militants seeming to believe that PSOE and PP are as bad as each other, and that PA’s role is to step up and attack from the centre, forcing a split between the two major parties so that PA becomes the only viable partner in the event of a coalition.

Isabel Barriga has found people to replace the former Ronda PA devastated by Marin Lara’s defection, and is trying to nurture a complete list of delegates in the event PA win the election, but polls suggest their distant third place is only enough to be a coalition party, and with precious few councillors at that, so the likelihood of Isabel becoming mayor seems remote.

With current polls showing PP on 36%, PSOE on 33%, PA on 18% and Izquierda Unida (IU) on 8.35% it does seem that Ronda’s municipal elections will be a two horse race. So whilst we can never discount the will of the people, the likelihood of a single party in control as is the case at present is almost unthinkable.

A coalition really does seem to be the most likely eventuality. As an aside, foreign residents living in Ronda number several hundred, as much as three seats in the municipal council, and given the normal low turnout for municipal elections, a block vote from foreign residents could seriously disrupt these predictions. In fact a block vote to PP would likely give PP a simple majority without needing a coalition partner.

Here’s looking forward to an interesting election campaign. Candidate interviews and policy discussions will be published in the new year, so make sure you keep checking back for updates.